March Madness 2026: Who Are the Sweet 16 Favorites?

The 2026 NCAA tournament enters its decisive phase with only 16 teams still in contention. First weekend surprises have shaken up the hierarchy, notably with Iowa’s victory over #1 seed Florida and Iowa State’s success against Kentucky without their All-American Joshua Jefferson.

Arizona and Michigan, the New Tournament Masters

The Arizona Wildcats now occupy first place in the title contenders rankings. The West region team possesses remarkable roster depth and exceptional ability to draw free throws, averaging 26.3 attempts per game this season. Their 72 free throw attempts in two tournament games demonstrate this tactical strength.

The Michigan Wolverines position themselves in second place thanks to an impressive trio of players over 6’9″: Aday Mara, Morez Johnson Jr., and Yaxel Lendeborg, all three projected as first-round picks in the 2026 NBA draft. The Wolverines shoot 37% from 3-point range and possess a defense ranked in the national top 3.

The Duke Blue Devils, despite their status as overall #1 seed, slide to third place. Injuries to Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II handicap the team, even though Cameron Boozer continues to shine with 41 points, 24 rebounds and seven assists in two tournament games.

Rising Underdogs

The Houston Cougars (4th) confirm Kelvin Sampson’s tradition of elevating his teams late in the season. Since February 1st, the Cougars boast the country’s 2nd best adjusted defense and shoot 42% from 3-point range since the start of the Big 12 tournament.

The Illinois Fighting Illini (5th) impress with their offensive efficiency, ranked first in the country for most of the season. Led by freshman Keaton Wagler (32 points, nine assists, 50% from 3-point range in two games), the Illini haven’t yet shown their limits.

Experts from USA TODAY Sports delivered their predictions for the Sweet 16. For the South region, Nebraska is heavily favored over Iowa, while Houston should dominate Illinois. In the West, Purdue is unanimous against Texas, and Arizona starts as favorite against Arkansas despite some dissenting voices.

The Sweet 16 schedule begins Thursday, March 26 with four enticing matchups, before continuing Friday, March 27. This 2026 edition marks the second consecutive year where all 16 remaining teams come from major conferences, a historic first in NCAA tournament history.