Are the Rockets favorites for a top-4 finish in the West?

With less than a month remaining in the 2025-2026 NBA regular season, the battle for spots 3 through 6 in the Western Conference is shaping up to be fierce. Four teams are separated by just 1.5 games: the Los Angeles Lakers (42-25), the Houston Rockets (41-25), and the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves (both 41-27).

This tight race takes on particular significance when you consider that securing the 3rd or 4th seed guarantees home-court advantage at least in the first round of the playoffs. Even more importantly, the 3rd seed would mean avoiding the defending champions, Oklahoma City, until the conference finals.

LIRE AUSSI

Denver overcomes 20-point deficit to beat the Spurs

13 mars 2026

Nicolas Flamecourt

Houston in a strong position despite recent losses

The Rockets have significant advantages in this final stretch. According to Tankathon, Houston has the easiest schedule among these five competing teams. Of their 16 remaining games, 10 will be played at the Toyota Center, where the Rockets boast an excellent 23-8 record, compared to 18-17 on the road.

Experts at NBA.com are optimistic about Houston’s chances. Steve Aschburner, Brian Martin, Shaun Powell, and John Schuhmann all place the Rockets in the top 4 at the end of the regular season. Two of them even position them in 3rd place.

John Schuhmann justifies this projection: « The Rockets have the easiest and most home-friendly schedule (as well as the best point differential) among teams in the 3-6 group, so they should be favorites to finish third. »

SCORING ROYALTY: LeBron James and Kevin Durant meet twice in three days as the Los Angeles Lakers, winners of five straight games, visit the Houston Rockets tonight at 9:30pm/et on Peacock and again Wednesday at 9:30pm/et on ESPN. The two have combined for more than 75,000… pic.twitter.com/yynxosbCas

— NBA (@NBA) March 16, 2026

Two crucial games against the Lakers

The immediate future of the Rockets is on the line this week with two critical matchups against the Lakers, Monday and Wednesday at the Toyota Center. Houston currently leads 1-0 in the head-to-head series and needs just one win in these two games to secure the tiebreaker advantage.

These games come at the perfect time after disappointing losses to Golden State, San Antonio, and Denver. Kevin Durant and his teammates have the opportunity to regain momentum against LeBron James and the Lakers.

West Coast meets the South 🤠

⏰ 8:30 pm Tip-Off
📺 @SpaceCityHN & @NBAonNBC
🏀 Stream on https://t.co/nI0CgtbFZ7
📻 @SportsTalk790 / En Español KLTN 102.9 HD2
📲 Live updates on Rockets App pic.twitter.com/js8qpdAF1l

— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) March 16, 2026

A sweep of the Lakers could mark the beginning of a decisive final sprint toward the playoffs, while the threat of the Phoenix Suns (39-28) looms over the 6th seed, and a drop to 7th would mean going through the play-in tournament.